Inference strength predicts the probability of conditionals better than conditional probability does

According to the philosophical theory of inferentialism and its psychological counterpart, Hypothetical Inferential Theory (HIT), meaning an indicative conditional centrally involves strength inferential connection between antecedent consequent. This paper states, for first time, implications HIT probabilities conditionals. We report two experiments comparing these with those suppositional account conditionals, according which probability a equals corresponding probability. A total 358 participants were presented everyday conditionals across three different tasks: judging conditionals; probabilities; inference from In both experiments, we found be much stronger predictor than probability, thus supporting HIT.